Trump trades continue to strengthen but here’s a reminder of 2020

The pattern I’m seeing so far is very clear:

Trump is doing better in rural areas while Harris is doing better in the suburbs than Biden. That said, the suburbs might be somewhat of an illusion because the mail-in votes (which skew Democrat) are usually counted first.

Betting sites put Trump decidedly ahead but I will warn that at this time in 2020, Trump was at 65%.

When I look at some county-level data, there is some good news for Harris in North Carolina. In the Raleigh suburban county of Chathan she is at 57.6%, which is 2.5 points ahead of Biden and that’s with 90% of the votes counted.

Again, this could be swamped by rural counties tilting the other way but this is what you want to watch. The swings in 2020 show that the market can be wrong and there was a similar lesson in 2016 and Brexit. This is the time to really dig in.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.