Trump: We will drive the price of oil down, everything else will follow

Trump and Bessent have been saying this for awhile but it’s not clear what the plan is to drive down the cost of oil. WTI is at $71.71 right now and Goldman Sachs made a pretty compelling case that US drilling slows down below $70, which acts as a natural floor.

Bessent has talked about adding 3 million barrels per day in US oil production (from about 13 mbpd now) but I’d argue that’s impossible sub-$70, given the current economics.

Looking abroad, the US can help end the war in Ukraine and free up some Russian oil or lean on OPEC to produce more but it’s not easy to twist OPEC’s arm. But given how much they have been talking about lowering oil prices, I’d imagine they have some kind of plan.

All that said, a drop in oil leading to broad disinflation is also a stretch.

Oil has dipped on Trump’s comment and has been struggling since the run at $80 in mid-January.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.