UBS on the data ahead of the FOMC meeting – what could trigger a 50bp interest rate cut

The key us data this week is on Tuesday, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement following the next day.

UBS are eyeing the retail sales and industrial production data, saying that weakness in these could potentially influence the Fe decd to cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp instead of 25bp.

UBS says inflation has softened enough for a rate cut. UBS outline their ‘base case’ as 100bp of cuts ahead for the balance of the year, and another 100 in 2025. UBS add that as rate cuts gather pace the US dollar will fall further, and gold will rise further.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.