UK April CPI +2.3% vs +2.1% y/y expected

• Prior +3.2%
• Core CPI +3.9% vs +3.6% y/y expected
• Prior +4.2%

On the month itself, headline inflation was seen up 0.3% (vs 0.2% expected) and core inflation up 0.9% (vs 0.7% expected). But the annual readings reflect higher estimates than expected. That said, they are still lower than in March owing to Ofgem lowering the energy price cap by 12% starting from April. The impact of that is a hard one to gauge but I reckon traders will take this as being stickier inflation, especially with annual services inflation seen at 5.9% (vs 5.5% expected).

The last point is perhaps where I’d draw the line on this being a hotter-than-expected report.

GBP/USD has moved higher to 1.2740 levels now, its highest since March. Traders will be looking to shake off the April high of 1.2709 with eyes on the 1.2800 mark next now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.