UK February ILO unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.0% expected

• Prior 3.9%
• Employment change -156k vs 58k expected
• Prior -21k
• Average weekly earnings +5.6% vs +5.5% 3m/y expected
• Prior +5.6%
• Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +6.0% vs +5.8% 3m/y expected
• Prior +6.1%
• March payrolls change -67k
• Prior 20k; revised to -18k

It is a bit of a mixed report as the job numbers are rather weak while wages are still holding at higher levels. The revision to the February payrolls sees the UK labour market report back-to-back negative payrolls in Q1. That’s a sign of loosening in the jobs market, with the unemployment rate also ticking higher.

From that perspective, it helps to solidify a pivot towards cutting rates. But with the hotter wage numbers, the BOE might feel vindicated to keep market expectations honed in on an August move.

GBP/USD is marginally lower at 1.2430, down just 0.1% on the day currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.