Thursday , 21 November 2024
Home Forex UK Pay Growth Stalls, Expected to Cool Further in 2024-25
Forex

UK Pay Growth Stalls, Expected to Cool Further in 2024-25

Reuters report on a survey from UK hiring firm BrightMine.

In summary:

  • UK median pay awards held steady at 4% in three months to September (prev: 4% in August)
  • Expected median pay rise for year ahead drops to 3% vs 6% in 2023
  • Public sector pay awards unchanged at 5.5%
  • Survey covered 64 pay awards affecting 433k employees
  • Forward guidance based on 289 firms representing ~500k workers
  • Q2 2023 saw higher increases at 4.8%

Market Impact:

  • Data aligns with BoE’s expectations for wage growth moderation
  • Supports case for further rate cuts, with next decision due Nov 7
  • UK inflation hit 3-year low of 1.7% in September

BoE Commentary earlier in October:

  • Gov Bailey signals openness to faster rate cuts if inflation eases

And just yesterday:

  • MPC’s Greene urges caution, citing longer-term inflation risks

The Bottom Line:
Survey suggests UK labor market cooling continues, though firms seek “creative ways” to retain talent amid skills shortages. Data broadly supportive of BoE’s dovish pivot. Wage growth dynamics will continue to play a role in BoE policy making.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Leave a comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Articles

USDJPY bounces off 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Can the buyers keep the momentum?

The USD/JPY pair moved lower during the morning U.S. session but found...

More from Goolsbee: Feels like we are heading to 2% inflation

Feel like we're headed to 2% inflation.Neutral is a long way below...

USDCHF moves above converged 100 and 200 hour MAs and rockets higher

Earlier today, I posted:USDCHF: The USDCHF held resistance at the 100-hour moving...

Matt Gaetz withdraws name for Attorney General nomination

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.