UK retail sales data for December jumps much higher

British Retail Consortium (BRC) data for December 2024:

Total sales +3.2% y/y, biggest jump since March 2024

• November was -3.3%
• Note, Black Friday fell in the BRC’s December period in 2024 and in November in 2023, distorting year-on-year comparisons

Like-for-like sales +3.1% y/y

• November -3.4%

Summary:

• Black Friday boosted retail sales in late 2024, with a 3.2% year-on-year rise in December after a 3.3% drop the previous month.
• However, quarterly sales growth was just 0.4%, indicating a decline in volumes when accounting for inflation.
• Retail sales for the full year rose modestly by 0.7%.
• The British Retail Consortium attributed the lackluster performance to weak consumer confidence and economic challenges, compounded by tax increases under the new Labour government.
• Separately, Barclays’ card data showed flat December spending, with declines in essentials offset by modest gains in non-essentials, including a 52% surge in cinema spending driven by films like Wicked. Economists predict stronger consumer spending in 2025 due to expected real wage growth and higher household savings.

BRC like-for-like sales is a metric reported by the British Retail Consortium to measure changes in retail sales, excluding the impact of new store openings or closures.

• It reflects sales performance only from stores that have been open for at least a year, providing a clearer view of underlying trends in consumer spending without distortions from changes in retail floorspace.

  This metric is widely used to assess how well retailers are performing in comparable, established locations, making it a reliable indicator of real growth or decline in sales.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.