UK retail sales in focus in the session ahead

The dollar is slightly lower on the day, giving back some of the gains from yesterday. The more solid US retail sales data helped to give the greenback a lift, alongside risk trades. It’s a repeat lesson to the old saying: Never underestimate the power of US the consumer

Looking to the session ahead, we’ll be turning our attention to another retail sales data. This time the one from the UK. And if there is a saying of sorts to this, it is that more often than not UK retail sales will end up disappointing. That at least since the pandemic. And inflation is the main thing to blame there.

It’s been the case for well more than a year already, as highlighted here in 2023. And that divergence between sales volume and sales value hasn’t really closed meaningfully.

At some point, there will be a change up to the benchmark in the report. However, that will only serve to mask the struggles of the UK consumer more so than anything else.

For today, the estimate is that we should see UK retail sales rise by 0.5% in July. After the disappointment in June here, perhaps there is a scope for a slight bounce amid the start of summer. But we’ll see.

Besides that, there isn’t much else of note on the agenda for the session ahead. So, traders will be left to continue to digest the broader market mood after the US retail sales data yesterday.

0600 GMT – UK July retail sales data0900 GMT – Eurozone June trade balance data

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.