UK September ILO unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.1% expected

• Prior 4.0%
• Employment change 219k vs 290k expected
• Prior 373k
• Average weekly earnings +4.3% vs +3.9% 3m/y expected
• Prior +3.8%; revised to +3.9%
• Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +4.3% vs +4.7% 3m/y expected
• Prior +4.9%
• October payrolls change -5k
• Prior -15k; revised to -9k

The UK jobless rate jumps up with payrolls for October once again showing a net decline, though the number for September was revised a little higher. There’s still a big caveat to the numbers here with ONS struggling to get an accurate read of underlying labour market conditions. But after months of supposedly “better” figures, the headline number is now correcting back to the other side.

ONS warns that: “Increased volatility of LFS estimates, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, means that estimates of change should be treated with additional caution.”

Nonetheless, all the details make for a slightly more dovish read for the BOE. The unemployment rate is up, payrolls change remains negative, and real wages continue to hold thereabouts after the decline since May.

GBP/USD is now down to its lows for the day at 1.2815 after the data.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.