US August non-farm payrolls +142K vs +160K expected

• Prior was +114K

Details of the August 2024 jobs report:

• Two-month net revision: -86K versus -29K prior
• Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.2% expected (prior was 4.3%)
• Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.220% vs 4.252% prior
• Participation rate: 62.7% versus 62.7% prior
• Private payrolls +118K vs +139K expected
• Prior private payrolls 97K (revised to 74K)
• U6 underemployment rate: 7.9% versus 7.8% prior
• Average hourly earnings: +0.4% m/m versus +0.3% m/m expected
• Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.2% m/m (revised to -0.1%)
• Average hourly earnings: +3.8% y/y versus +3.7% y/y expected
• Average weekly hours: 34.3 versus 34.2 prior
• Change in manufacturing payrolls: -24K versus +1K prior
• Household survey: +168K versus +67K prior
• Government jobs: +24K versus +17K prior
• Full time: -438K versus +448K prior
• Part time: +527K versus -325K prior

Fed pricing showed a 43% chance of a 50 bps cut ahead of the release and 110 bps of easing priced in this year ahead of the release. Immediately afterwards, that’s up to 57% and 119 bps. Looking out through Sept 2025, 229 bps of easing was priced in and that’s up to 241 bps.

USD/JPY was trading at 143.30 just ahead of the release and has been whippy afterwards, initially rising then turning lower to 142.41.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.