US economy “reaccelerating”, there’s a near coin toss chance of a Fed rate hike this year

Torsten Sløk is Apollo Chief Economist. In a note title “The Economy Is Re-Accelerating” Sløk notes the rising probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2025:

• employment report came in stronger than expected
• weekly same-store retail sales were better than expected
• Prices Paid for ISM Services came in higher than expected
• bottom line is that momentum in the economy is strong
• the narrative that monetary policy is restrictive is wrong
• Combined with higher animal spirits and the latest Atlanta Fed GDP estimate at 2.7%, we see a 40% probability that the Fed will hike rates in 2025

Slok provides a barrage of graphs on economic strength to support his view, link here.

For example:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.