US initial jobless claims 216K vs 230K estimate

• Prior week initial claims 227K revised to 228K
• Initial jobless claims 216K vs 230K estimate
• 4-week MA of initial jobless claims 236.50 versus 238.75K last week
• Prior week continuing claims 1.897M revise to 1.888M
• Continuing claims 1.862M vs 1.885M estimate
• 4-week MA of continuing claims 1.869M vs 1.8585M last week.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 19 were in Florida (+4,501), Kansas (+304),
Wisconsin (+222), Hawaii (+103), and Idaho (+101), while the largest decreases were in New York (-2,785), North
Carolina (-2,767), California (-2,012), Texas (-1,865), and Georgia (-1,852).

The hurricane may have had an impact on the recent data but the trend (see chart) is still to the downside (on the strong side).

Tomorrow the US jobs report from the BLS will be released with expectations of 108K and and unemployment rate 4.1%. This month’s employment data may be influenced by the hurricane and strike. Yesterday the ADP employment report however came in much stronger than expectations. An interesting difference is that if an employee remains on the payroll they remain employed. Those that don’t get a paycheck (from BLS) are not counted as employed. That dynamic may come into play this month with the hurricane and the strike impacting the data.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.