US international trade balance for July $-78.8 billion versus – $-79.0 billion estimate

• Prior month $-73.1 billion revised to $-73.0 billion
• Goods trade balance $-102.84 billion versus $-96.56 billion
• Services surplus $24.3 billion versus $24.2 billion last month

Other details:

• Exports +0.5% versus +1.7% last month.
• Imports +2.1% versus +0.6% last month.
• Total exports $266.6 billion versus $265.279 last month. Higher
• Total imports $345.39 billion versus $338.28 billion last month. Higher.
• Capital goods imports $83.45 billion versus $80.188 last month. Higher.
• Trade deficit with China -$30.12 billion versus deficit of $-22.18 last month.
• July oil import price $75.96 versus $74.113 last month. +11.5% from last year’s $68.11

Although near expectations, the trend in the trade deficit is continuing to increase (see chart above). If the US has a large trade deficit, the “standard” reaction should be for the USD to decline. Why? If the US dollar moves lower, the price of imports rise and the relative value of US exports go down (become cheaper abroad). The US dollar is marginally lower after the report.

What may be happening is importers in the US are pre-buying ahead of the US elections. Trump is in favor of using tariffs on goods imported into the US. Even the Dems are a less opposed to tariffs vs the past. So buy imports early to avoid the increased cost if and when tariffs are imposed on imports.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.