US July non-farm payrolls +114K vs +175K expected

• Prior was +206 (revised to +179K)

Details of the July 2024 jobs report:

• Two-month net revision -29K vs -111K prior
• Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.1% expected (unrounded 4.252%)
• Prior unemployment rate 4.1%
• Participation rate 62.7% vs 62.6% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 7.8% vs 7.4% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Prior avg hourly earnings +0.3% m/m
• Average hourly earnings +3.6% y/y vs +3.7% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.3 expected
• Change in private payrolls +97K vs +148K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls +1K vs -1K expected
• Household survey +67K vs +116K prior
• Government jobs +17K vs +70K prior
• Full time +448K vs -28K prior
• Part time -325K vs +50K prior

Some notes on sectors:

• Health care continued to add jobs (+55,000)
• Information sector lost jobs (-20,000)
• Government employment showed little change after larger gains in previous months

The report states Hurricane Beryl had no discernible effect on the national employment and unemployment data. There was a significant increase in the number of people on temporary layoff, rising by 249,000 to 1.1 million, that could be reversed in the months ahead and it may show that the rise in unemployment isn’t as bad as the market is initially showing.

Fed pricing was for 32 bps at the September meeting and 89 bps at year end ahead of the report. US 2-year yields were trading at 4.11% and USD/JPY was trading at 149.00.

There have been some huge moves on the back of this report, particularly in USD/JPY, which has plunged to 147.39. US 2-year yields fell to 3.91%. In terms of Fed pricing, we’re up to 42 bps for September, implying a 70% chance of 50 basis points. For year end, pricing is at 109 bps.

the report states it had no discernible effect on the national employment and unemployment data.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.