US June CPI +3.0% vs +3.1% y/y expected

Headline measures:

• Prior y/y 3.3%
• m/m -0.1% versus +0.1% expected
• Prior m/m 0.1%
• Unrounded % vs +0.313% m/m prior

Core measures and details:

• Core CPI m/m +0.1% versus +0.2% expected. Prior month 0.2%
• Unrounded core +0.065% vs +0.163% prior
• Core CPI y/y +3.3% versus 3.4% expected. Prior month was 3.4%
• Supercore m/m -0.054% vs -0.045% prior
• Supercore y/y +4.651% vs +4.8% y/y prior
• Shelter +0.2% versus +0.4% prior month
• Shelter y/y +5.2% vs +5.4% prior
• Real weekly earnings +0.3% vs +0.4% prior
• Food +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% m/m prior
• Food +2.2% y/y vs +2.1% y/y prior
• Energy -2.0% m/m vs -0.2% m/m prior
• Energy +1.0% vs +3.7% y/y prior
• Rents +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% prior
• Owner’s equivalent rent +0.3% vs +0.4% prior
• Motor vehicle insurance +0.9% vs -0.1% m/m prior

Before the report, the market was pricing 49 bps of easing before year end prior to the report with a 70% chance of a cut in September. Those numbers are now 57.5 bps and a 92% chance of a September cut.

A couple numbers look wonky here with used autos -1.5% m/m and airline fares -5.0% m/m but the overall picture is unambiguous in a shift towards lower inflation.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.