US Q4 employment costs 0.9% versus 0.9% estimate

• Prior quarter 0.8%
• Employment cost index Q4 0.9% vs 0.9% estimate
• Employment cost YoY 3.8% for the quarter ending December 2024 vs 3.9% for year ending September 2024
• Benefits 0.8% vs 0.8% last quarter. YoY rose 3.6% for 2024 vs 3.8% in 2023
• Wages 0.9% vs 0.8% last quarter. YoY 3.8% vs 4.3% in 2023

Looking at some of the details:

Private Industry Workers:

• Compensation costs increased 3.6% (4.1% in Dec 2023).
• Wages and salaries increased 3.7% (4.3% in Dec 2023).
• Benefit costs increased 3.3% (3.6% in Dec 2023).
• Inflation-adjusted wages and salaries increased 0.8%.

Private Industry by Bargaining Status:

• Union workers: Compensation costs increased 5.1%, wages and salaries 5.5%, benefit costs 4.6%.
• Non-union workers: Compensation costs increased 3.4%, wages and salaries 3.5%, benefit costs 3.1%.

State and Local Government Workers:

• Compensation costs increased 4.7% (4.6% in Dec 2023).
• Wages and salaries increased 4.5% (4.7% in Dec 2023).
• Benefit costs increased 4.9% (4.6% in Dec 2023).

The YoY numbers are down from 2023 which is good with wages making a jump from 4.3% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024.

Looking at the chart above, the government compensation YoY is steady, while the private compensation is trending lower. I would expect with DOGE looking to shrink the deficit, this chart will not sit right with the powers that be.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.