US retail sales and Canadian CPI light up the calendar

The final piece of the Fed puzzle will be released today with the November retail sales report. This is a tricky one and it could disappoint because Thanksgiving and the Black Friday weekend were so late in November. Of course, that contrasts with a secular trend towards earlier Christmas shopping and discounting so the consensus lands on +0.5% m/m with the control group at +0.4%.

Meanwhile, Canada remains in focus with the November CPI report. The Bank of Canada cut by 50 basis points last week and the market is pricing in a 56% chance of a 25 bps cut on January 29. There will be a second CPI report before then so it’s not a pivotal number but it will be a market mover. The consensus is +2.0% y/y on the headline.

Domestically, it looks like Trudeau isn’t going anywhere but an election could be forced in February if he sticks around.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.