USD/JPY heavy ahead of European morning trade

This is not the first time I’m going with this headline this week. 😆 The dollar is weaker at the balance but the move in USD/JPY is rather outsized on the day. The pair is down 0.8% to 150.30 currently and is nudging closer towards a key test of the 150.00 level next. I’ve outlined some plausible reasons for the downside move in the linked post but adding to that is definitely the continued rise in Japan government bond yields. That is leading to a narrowing in the rate differential between 10-year yields in the US and Japan this year.

For some context, 10-year JGB yields are now at 1.44% – its highest since November 2009. This comes as market players are testing the limits of a more hawkish BOJ, with thinking that things will pick up even quicker again after the spring wage negotiations in March.

Going back to USD/JPY, a test of the 150.00 level beckons now. A break of that will draw in the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing higher since September at 149.22 next. Alongside that, the December low of 148.63 will also be a point of contention on a break of 150.00 in the sessions ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.