USD/JPY shows some life in final stretch of the week

The pair is defended by the January low of 148.63 this week and has been consolidating in a bit of a range in between 149.00 to 150.00 mostly. But now we’re getting a jump to 150.40-50 levels and it’s not really owing to any major headline, at least not one that I can see. If anything, it appears to be a more technical one with the jump coinciding with the break of the 200-hour moving average (blue line) as seen above.

Amid the downtrend since mid-February, sellers have been holding on to a more bearish near-term bias in keeping price action below the key hourly moving averages. That momentum was broken somewhat yesterday but now we’re starting to see buyers make a bit of a play.

Is this where USD/JPY comes up for some air?

Well, I’m not all too convinced just yet. For one, the bond market needs to play ball and 10-year Treasury yields are down to 4.24% now and contesting a potential break below its own 200-day moving average. All else being equal, that’s a factor that should weigh on USD/JPY instead of underpin it.

So, while there is a spurt higher here in USD/JPY to start the session, it might not be one that stays the course. Besides the bond market, we also have to factor in month-end flows and the reaction to the US PCE price data later to get a better sense of the move we’re seeing.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.