USDCAD nears critical support level in trading range

The USDCAD has fallen toward key swing area support and the lower boundary of the “Red Box” that has defined most of the trading range since December 17. Adminttedly, there was a brief volatility break around the inauguration in January, but those breaks were quickly reversed, reinforcing this area as a key technical zone.

Last week, the pair broke above the high of the “Red Box” and, fueled by tariff news over the weekend, surged to its highest level since 2003. However, that move has been retraced following Mexico’s 30-day tariff reprieve, followed by a similar move for Canada.

Today, after a sharp decline and partial recovery in the Asian session, sellers stepped in near the 100-hour MA (blue line), driving the pair back into the “Red Box” and below the 200-hour MA. During the North American session, sellers defended the 200-hour MA, encouraging further downside momentum.

Key Technical Factors:

• Support: The lower boundary of the “Red Box” remains a key support area.
• Resistance: The 200-hour MA, which sellers have leaned on today, is now a key resistance level.

While sellers have controlled the momentum, this extreme low area could attract buyers, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the 30-day tariff reprieve. With Trump’s unpredictability, risks remain, and any shift in sentiment could trigger a bounce. Traders may look for buying opportunities with stops below this key support zone.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.