USDCAD retraced earlier declines but finds willing sellers near its 200 hour MA.

The USD/CAD gapped lower over the weekend following news that Scott Bressent would be named Treasury Secretary under Trump. However, the initial decline lacked follow-through, and the pair resumed its upward momentum.

Key Levels Tested

• The price rebounded above the August 2024 high at 1.39458 and the 2022 high at 1.39785, signaling bullish intent.
• Momentum carried the pair to and briefly above the 200-hour moving average (MA) at 1.4002 and the psychological 1.4000 level, but these gains were unsustainable, prompting a pullback.

Current Position

The pair has now retreated to a zone near the 100-hour MA at 1.3969 and the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.39573. This places the price back within the range defined by the 2022 high (1.39785) and the August 2024 high (1.39458).

Buyer and Seller Stand-Off

• Sellers: Tested levels below the August 2024 high at 1.39458 but failed to maintain control.
• Buyers: Attempted to sustain momentum above the 2022 high at 1.39785, but gains were limited.

Both sides have made their moves, but neither has gained a decisive edge. Traders should now watch for a break outside the 1.39458–1.39785 range. A sustained move in either direction could signal the next momentum-driven shift.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.