USDCAD settles after fireworks at the start of the week. Price back in familiar territory.

The USDCAD has begun to stabilize following last week’s and this week’s significant volatility. The price initially surged higher on Monday, reacting to news of a 25% tariff announcement over the weekend. Mexico quickly negotiated a 30-day deal to meet President Trump’s requirements, followed by Canada taking similar steps, which triggered a sharp reversal in the USDCAD.

The momentum carried into yesterday, with the price dropping below the “Red Box” range—a range that defined trading from December through most of January. However, sellers failed to push the price below a key swing target between 1.4260 and 1.4270, prompting buyers to step in and drive the price back into the “Red Box,” signaling a return to neutrality.

Looking ahead, the level near 1.43687 has become a key pivot point (see green numbered circles on the chart below). The corrective high today stalled near this level before rotating lower, reinforcing its significance as a potential ceiling. A move below 1.43687 keeps sellers in control, while a break above this level could lead to further upside momentum for the pair.

On the downside, getting below 1.4290 and then 1.4260 are the key progressive steps to increase the bearish bias.

On the top side, get above 1.43687 and we could see rotation back toward the 200 hour moving average about 1.4426 currently. There would probably be some pause near 1.4400..

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.