USDCAD swings wildly as Trump impacts the currency pair. What are the technicals saying?

The USD/CAD is heavily influenced by headline news stemming from the new Trump presidency. Yesterday, the pair initially moved lower, tracking the USD’s response to the inauguration address. However, the market reacted sharply as comments and executive orders (EOs) began to surface, particularly the suggestion of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods starting February 1. While the outcome of such policies remains uncertain, the prospect caused the USD/CAD to spike higher.

From a technical perspective, recent price action has been noteworthy. The pair has been trading within a “Red Box” range since mid-December, defined by 1.42899 (low) and 1.4466 (high). Although there were brief breakouts above this range earlier this month—most notably on U.S. jobs day and again on Friday—these moves ultimately failed, with the price returning to within the box.

Looking ahead, the key resistance lies at the upper boundary of the Red Box, between 1.4448 and 1.4466. A sustained move above this zone could signal increased bullish momentum and provide buyers with another opportunity to push higher. However, if the resistance holds, a downward correction is possible, targeting a cluster of moving averages (MAs). These include the 100- and 200-hour MAs, as well as the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart, which converge between 1.4386 and 1.43938. A break below this MA cluster would open the door for a test of the Red Box’s lower boundary at 1.42899.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.