USDCHF is backing off highs going back to July and back below 61.8% retracement

The USDCHF last week moved above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the May 1 high to the early September low at 0.88989 last week, but failed on two separate attempts. The high price on Friday stalled near that retracement level and rotated to the downside. Going forward it would take a move back above the 61.8% retracement to increase the bullish bias.

Having said that, the rotation to the downside has been modest, but is looking to extend below its 100 hour moving average and 0.88614. The current prices trading at 0.8857.

If the sellers can keep the price below the 100 hour moving average the next key target area comes against its 200 day moving average at 0.88202. Just below that his its rising 200 hour moving average at 0.8812 currently. If the price can get below both those moving average levels, it would add to the sellers confidence at least in the short term. The 50% of the move down from the May 1 high comes in at 0.87986 and that would be another downside target.———————————–

Summary of USDCHF Market Analysis

Key Points:

1. Resistance: USDCHF struggled to break above the 61.8% retracement level (0.88989) of the May 1 high to early September low.

2. Current Price: 0.8857, below the 100-hour moving average (0.88614).

3. Downside Targets:

1. 200-day moving average: 0.88202

2. 200-hour moving average: 0.8812

3. 50% retracement: 0.87986

Outlook:

1. Failure to break above 0.88989 gave the sellers a win and short term bearish bias.

2. Sellers’ confidence increases: If the price moves below 100-hour moving average and break of 0.88202/0.8812 levels (200 day and 200 hour MA) it gives sellers more confidence and short term control. .

Actionable Insights:

1. Watch for a break above 0.88989 to shift bias back to full control for the buyers.

2. Short-term sellers: Focus on extending below 0.88202/0.8812 levels.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.