USDCHF is lower but rebounding to a key technical level. What next? What about next week?

The USDCHF is lower on the week after reaching the highest level going back to May 2024 on Monday. The low for the week was reached on Wednesday after the US CPI data, but that decline was quickly rejected.

The rebound after the CPI took the price up to its 100-hour moving average where sellers leaned. Yesterday the price action was up-and-down with the currency pair closing down on the day.

In trading today, the price has remained below the 100-hour moving average, but continued it up and down trading. The price in the early North American session has moved back up to retest the key 100-hour moving average currently at 0.91325 (and is above its 200 hour moving average of 0.91258). Getting above those moving average levels and staying above — would be more bullish from a technical perspective not only today but going into next week’s trading.

Fundamentally, the Swiss National Bank is more dovish as inflation is much lower than the 2% target. Conversely, US inflation remained sticky above 2% (and 2.5% for that matter). That should keep the pair more bid with buyers in control. Putting it another way, the technicals will have to drive a lower move.

On the downside, the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart comes in at 0.90841. Getting below below the 100 and 200-hour moving averages and the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart is required to give the sellers more control from a technical perspective at least in the short term.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.