Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 43 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 134 bps

• ECB: 30 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 143 bps

• BoE: 41 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 127 bps

• BoC: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 110 bps

• RBA: 8 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 57 bps

• RBNZ: 53 bps (90% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 158 bps

• SNB: 31 bps (75% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 68 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 6 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 33 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.