Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 43 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 125 bps

• ECB: 29 bps (86% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 136 bps

• BoE: 40 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 121 bps

• BoC: 27 bps (92% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 103 bps

• RBA: 8 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 57 bps

• RBNZ: 57 bps (70% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/30% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 160 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 6 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 34 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.