Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 43 bps (100% probability of rate cut at today’s decision)
2025: 106 bps
- ECB: 27 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 133 bps
- BoE: 31 bps (94% probability of rate cut at today’s decision)
2025: 87 bps
- BoC: 36 bps (55% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 102 bps
- RBA: 3 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 46 bps
- RBNZ: 51 bps (95% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/5% for a 75 bps cut)
2025: 143 bps
- SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 70 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 10 bps (60% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 40 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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