Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 15 bps (63% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

• ECB: 32 bps (74% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 141 bps

• BoE: 5 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 62 bps

• BoC: 33 bps (65% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 97 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 48 bps

• RBNZ: 50 bps (97% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/3% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 123 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 13 bps (53% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 45 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.