Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 15 bps (63% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 75 bps
- ECB: 32 bps (74% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 141 bps
- BoE: 5 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 62 bps
- BoC: 33 bps (65% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 97 bps
- RBA: 2 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 48 bps
- RBNZ: 50 bps (97% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/3% for a 75 bps cut)
2025: 123 bps
- SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 70 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 13 bps (53% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 45 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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