Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 72 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 196 bps

• ECB: 38 bps (65% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 152 bps

• BoE: 50 bps (79% probability of no change at today’s meeting)

2025: 161 bps

• BoC: 75 bps (58% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 226 bps

• RBA: 17 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 101 bps

• RBNZ: 84 bps (70% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 242 bps

• SNB: 53 bps (58% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 8 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 26 bps

(*Where you see 25 bps probability, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.