Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 14 bps (55% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 74 bps

• ECB: 31 bps (74% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 137 bps

• BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 66 bps

• BoC: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 88 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 45 bps

• RBNZ: 55 bps (79% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/21% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 135 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 15 bps (58% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 47 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.