Top Insights
Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 13 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 69 bps
- ECB: 39 bps (55% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 146 bps
- BoE: 5 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 74 bps
- BoC: 31 bps (75% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 77 bps
- RBA: 2 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 52 bps
- RBNZ: 59 bps (63% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/37% for a 75 bps cut)
2025: 147 bps
- SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 70 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 15 bps (58% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 48 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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