Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 16 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

• ECB: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 147 bps

• BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 71 bps

• BoC: 30 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 92 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 54 bps

• RBNZ: 33 bps (67% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 87 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 13 bps (53% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 48 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.