Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 22 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 88 bps
- ECB: 29 bps (83% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 148 bps
- BoE: 3 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 76 bps
- BoC: 47 bps (88% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 118 bps
- RBA: 2 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 70 bps
- RBNZ: 36 bps (55% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 100 bps
- SNB: 40 bps (60% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 90 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 7 bps (71% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 45 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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