Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 22 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 88 bps

• ECB: 29 bps (83% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 148 bps

• BoE: 3 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 76 bps

• BoC: 47 bps (88% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 118 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

• RBNZ: 36 bps (55% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 100 bps

• SNB: 40 bps (60% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 90 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 7 bps (71% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 45 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.