Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 24 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 80 bps

• ECB: 30 bps (80% probability of 25 bps rate cut at today’s decision)

2025: 151 bps

• BoE: 3 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 76 bps

• BoC 2025: 61 bps (51% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• RBA 2025: 72 bps (52% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• RBNZ 2025: 108 bps (75% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• SNB 2025: 40 bps (97% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 6 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 44 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.