Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 24 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

• ECB 2025: 111 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• BoE: 4 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 73 bps

• BoC 2025: 56 bps (63% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• RBA 2025: 72 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• RBNZ 2025: 105 bps (75% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• SNB 2025: 50 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 5 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 44 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.