Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 75 bps (51% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 197 bps

• ECB: 46 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 165 bps

• BoE: 40 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 161 bps

• BoC: 72 bps (58% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 211 bps

• RBA: 16 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 100 bps

• RBNZ: 85 bps (50% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 237 bps

• SNB: 53 bps (61% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 65 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 7 bps (82% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 27 bps

(*Where you see 25 bps probability, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.