Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 46 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 135 bps

• ECB: 50 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 145 bps

• BoE: 35 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 116 bps

• BoC: 69 bps (68% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 162 bps

• RBA: 10 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 67 bps

• RBNZ: 46 bps (83% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 151 bps

• SNB: 28 bps (86% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 41 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 8 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 33 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.