Weekly update on interest rates expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 105 bps (*61% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 66 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 44 bps (70% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 78 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 30 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 76 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 50 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 7 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*The remaining 39% probability for the Fed is for a 50 bps cut. That will be decided in the first week of September.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.