What are the main events for today?

It’s the US Presidential Election Day so I wouldn’t expect the market to care about anything else. Although this week we have some key economic releases and central bank decisions, it’s really all about the US election. This week is basically divided in three phases: the pre-election noise, the election and the post-election trading.

15:00 GMT/10:00 ET – US October ISM Services PMI

The US ISM
Services PMI is expected at 53.8 vs. 54.9 prior. This survey hasn’t been giving
any clear signal in the past couple of years as it’s just been ranging since
2022.

Nonetheless, the
services sector showed resilience in these years, and it looks like it’s been
picking up steam in the recent quarters.

The S&P Global
Services PMI noted that “demand
has strengthened, as signalled by new order inflows hitting the highest for
nearly one-and-a-half years, albeit with both output and sales growth limited
to the services economy.”

And added “businesses
nevertheless remain cautious about hiring, leading to a third month of modest
payroll reductions. Firms are worried in particular about uncertainty caused by
the Presidential Election.”

Therefore,
everything hinges on the US Presidential Election.

21:30 GMT/16:30 ET – New Zealand Q3 Labour Market report

The New Zealand
Labour Market report is expected to show a contraction of -0.5% in Q3 vs. 0.4%
in Q2 and the Unemployment Rate to jump to 5.0% vs. 4.6% prior. The Labour Cost
Index Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs. 3.6% prior, while the Q/Q measure is seen at 0.7%
vs. 0.9% prior.

As a reminder, the
RBNZ cut interest rates by 50 bps at the last meeting and the market expects
another 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting (22% chance of a 75 bps cut). In 2025, the market sees four more
25 bps cuts.

Central bank speakers:

• 14:30 GMT/09:30 ET – ECB’s Lagarde (neutral – voter)
• 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET – ECB’s Schnabel (neutral – voter)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.