What are the main events for today?

The European session is going to be once again a bit empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier data points. We get the 2nd estimate of the Eurozone Q3 GDP and the ECB Meeting Minutes. Both of them are old news and the market won’t care much about it.

In the American session, the focus will be on the US PPI and Jobless Claims data. Yesterday’s US CPI came in line with expectations and after a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar, the market started to bid it again.

The CPI wasn’t the main culprit though as the momentum got triggered by Fed’s Logan comment saying “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” potentially implying a lot more cautious approach on rate cuts in 2025.

13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US October PPI

The US PPI Y/Y is
expected at 2.3% vs. 1.8% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.0%
prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs. 2.8% prior, while the M/M
figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior.

This report will
be seen in light of the US CPI data yesterday as it will give us a better estimate of the US Core PCE due at the end of the month. An upside surprise might trigger some more US Dollar gains as the market could price out some more the rate cuts expected in 2025, but the December cut remains pretty much assured.

13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US Jobless Claims

The US Jobless
Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims
after an improvement in the last two months, spiked to the cycle highs in the
last couple of weeks due to distortions coming from hurricanes and strikes.

This week Initial
Claims are expected at 223K vs. 221K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1880K vs. 1852K prior.

Central bank speakers:

• 08:30 GMT – ECB’s de Guindos (dove – voter)
• 13:00 GMT/08:00 – BoE’s Mann (hawk – voter)
• 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET – Fed’s Barkin (neutral – voter)
• 15:00 GMT/10:00 ET – Fed’s Kugler (dove – voter)
• 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET – ECB’s Schnabel (hawk – voter)
• 19:00 GMT/14:00 ET – ECB’s Lagarde (neutral – voter)
• 20:00 GMT/15:00 ET – Fed Chair Powell (neutral – voter)
• 21:15 GMT/16:15 ET – Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.