What are the main events for today?

The European session today is pretty empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier releases. The main event will be the US NFP report in the American session. We will also hear from Fed’s Williams after the US jobs report, so that’s going to be interesting.

12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US September NFP

The US NFP report
is expected to show 140K jobs added in September vs. 142K in August and the
Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y
are seen at 3.8% vs. 3.8% prior, while the M/M figure at 0.3% vs. 0.4% prior.

The Fed projected
a 4.4% unemployment rate by the end of the year with 50 bps of easing. The
unemployment rate in 2024 has been rising due to increased labour supply rather
than more layoffs, which is something that jobless claims have been capturing
well.

The market is
pricing a 35% probability of another 50 bps cut in November, which is down from 53% at the start of the week. The probability could very
well increase if the NFP report were to be overall weak. Of course, the opposite would be true if the labour market report were to come in better than expected with a 25
bps cut becoming the most likely move.

Central bank speakers:

• 7:55 GMT – BoE’s Pill (neutral – voter)
• 13:00 GMT/09:00 ET – Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.