What are the main events to look out for today?

The calendar is basically empty for the European session, so the focus will be on the US session ahead when we will get the Canadian CPI report and we will also probably finally hear some monetary policy comments from Fed’s Waller.

• Canada CPI 12:30 GMT (08:30 ET)

The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.8%
vs. 2.9% prior,
while the M/M figure is seen at 0.5% vs. 0.6% prior. The focus will be on
the underlying inflation measures though as that’s what the BoC cares most
about. The Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.9% vs. 3.1% prior, while
the Median CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.7% vs. 2.8% prior. Such readings or even lower should
give the BoC enough confidence to deliver the first rate cut in June as they
would be within their 1-3% target band.

• Fed’s Waller (neutral – voter) 13:00 GMT (09:00 ET)

Christopher Waller is a key FOMC member
because he’s been a “leading indicator” for changes in Fed’s policy.
He was
the first one talking about QT in December 2021 and the first one
mentioning
rate cuts in November 2023. Right now though, the Fed is in a “wait and
see” mode and it’s unlikely that they will deviate from the current
stance before seeing more data. The topic of today’s speech is “Economic Outlook” so we should get some comments on monetary policy.

The other central bank speakers scheduled for today include:

• Fed’s Barkin (neutral – voter) 13:00 GMT (09:00 ET).
• Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter) 13:05 GMT (09:05 ET).
• Fed’s Bostic (hawk – voter) 13:10 GMT (09:10 ET).
• Fed’s Barr (neutral – voter) 15:45 GMT (11:45 ET).
• BoE’s Bailey (neutral – voter) 17:00 GMT (13:00 ET).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.