What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?

Why it’s important?

The ranges of estimates are
important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the
expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another
important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of
estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the
range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but
on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts

Non-Farm Payrolls

• 120K-200K range of estimates
• 140K-185K range most clustered
• 160K consensus

Unemployment Rate

• 4.4% (2%)
• 4.3% (30%)
• 4.2% (65%) – consensus
• 4.1% (3%)

Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y

• 4.1% (10%)
• 4.0% (67%) – consensus
• 3.9% (20%)
• 3.8% (3%)

Average Hourly Earnings M/M

• 0.4% (13%)
• 0.3% (70%) – consensus
• 0.2% (15%)
• 0.1% (2%)

Average Weekly Hours

• 34.4 (4%)
• 34.3 (85%) – consensus
• 34.2 (11%)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.