What will the S&P 500 do with the US CPI report? Scenarios.

JPMorgan trading desk outlines scenarios for the US stock market, the likely response of the S&P 500 (the one-day implied move), based on what the April CPI m/m reading will be:

If the CPI comes in below 0.2% m/m, which JPM say is a 2.5% probability, then 2 to 2.5% gains for the index

• between 0.20% to 0.25%, to which JPM ascribe a 7.5% probability, gains of 1.5% to 2%
• between 0.25% to 0.3%, 10% probability, gains of 1% to 1.5%
• between 0.3% to 0.35%, probability 40%, S&P 500 down by 0.5% to a 1% gain
• between 0.35% to 0.4%, 30% probability, down 0.5% to 1.25%
• CPI above 0.4%, probability 10%, down 1.75% to 2.5%

JPMorgan info via Bloomberg report.

Everyone if its +0.4%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.