What’s priced in for major central banks

Below is a quick snapshot of what is priced for major central banks after yesterday’s US CPI.

A few notable changes:

BoC: after yesterday’s policy decision, markets now see about a 50/50 chance between a cut and hold for June.

BoE: Markets have pushed back their expectations a bit with the first cut now fully priced in by September, and just 48 basis points of cutting priced for the year.

Fed: First cut for the Fed fully priced in by November, with a 88% chance of a cut in September.

Below is a quick comparison for the total amount of cutting implied by year end.

Apart from the BoJ where hikes are still expected, the biggest two outliers is the RBA at -18 basis points worth of cuts implied, and then ECB at -73 basis points of cuts implied by year end.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.