What’s priced in for the BOE now after the UK CPI data

Well, to be fair, it was more or less already fully priced in even before the data. The odds of that were ~97% previously, so traders have just moved to fully price in a 25 bps rate cut now. Meanwhile, traders are now anticipating roughly 71 bps worth of rate cuts for the year. That is a slight step up from the ~66 bps priced in before the inflation numbers.

All in all, the data has just served to rebuff expectations of an August rate cut. As for the BOE this week, the narrative doesn’t change and the central bank is to stick to the status quo. They already made an adjustment to their policy wording last month here. So, the data today helps to sell that change. The more interesting part will be to see if the hawkish dissents from Haskel and Mann will change.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.