Where will US inflation be when the Fed meets in June

Market pricing for a Fed cut at the June 12 meeting has fallen to 62% and there are only 74 bps of cuts priced in. There’s a rising chance that next week’s Fed dots will show just 50 bps in cuts as the median.

Here’s a good chart from Bank of America showing why. It looks ahead to where year-over-year US CPI will be in June given monthly rises of 0.1% to 0.4%. There’s no path in that scenario that gets particularly close to 2% and continued +0.3% readings would leave the measure at 3.6% — surely too hot for the Fed to start cutting.

Moreover, given the recent rise in oil and gasoline prices, the odds fall further.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.