Who’ll Win the Election? What’ll Become of Powell and Gensler? Place Your Predictions on BitMEX

As of 9 August 04:00 UTC, four new Prediction Markets are available to trade on BitMEX to predict and take positions on the outcomes of the following:

• P_TRUMPX24: Whether or not Donald Trump wins the election
• P_KAMALAX24: Whether or not Kamala Harris wins the election
• P_POWELLK26: Whether Jerome Powell will quit or get fired before his term ends 
• P_GENSLERM26: Whether Gary Gensler will quit or get fired before his term ends 

For more details on the new contracts and how you can start trading them, read on. 

If you haven’t signed up for a BitMEX account yet, we’re currently offering up to $5,000 in BMEX Tokens for verified users- you can register here.

What Are the New Prediction Markets Contracts? 

As of 9 August 04:00 UTC, there are four Prediction Markets contracts available to trade: 

• P_TRUMPX24: A prediction on whether Donald Trump will win the presidential election.
  • Settlement: The contract will settle at 100% where Donald Trump wins the presidential election (full terms here). 
  • Expiry: 29 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC, subject to early settlement (Election results expected on 5 Nov 2024).
• P_KAMALAX24: A prediction on whether Kamala Harris will win the presidential election.
  • Settlement: The contract will settle at 100% where Kamala Harris wins the presidential election (full terms here). 
  • Expiry: 29 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC, subject to early settlement (Election results expected on 5 Nov 2024).
• P_POWELLK26: A prediction on whether Jerome Powell will quit or get fired before his term ends. 
  • Settlement: The contract will settle at 100% where Jerome Powell resigns or no longer holds his position as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve before 15 May 2026 (full terms here). 
  • Expiry: 29 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC, subject to early settlement (Resignation or position change, term ends on 15 May 2026).
• P_GENSLERM26: A prediction on whether Gary Gensler will quit or get fired before his term ends. 
  • Settlement: The contract will settle at 100% where Gary Gensler resigns or no longer holds his position as Chairman of the SEC before 5 June 2026 (full terms here).
  • Expiry: 26 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, subject to early settlement (Resignation or position change, term ends on 5 June 2026).

P.S. We are offering a 5bps Maker rebate for those who trade the new and existing Prediction Markets contracts. 

The fees for the contracts will be as follows: 

• Taker Fee: 0.2%
• Maker Fee: -0.05%

How Do Prediction Markets Work at BitMEX? 

Prediction Markets work the same as all futures contracts on BitMEX, with a few differences as listed below:

• The price of the contracts will be marked as Last Price*. 
• No leverage is granted. 
• Margin and settlement in Tether (USDT).
• Payouts will be based on a bounded price from 0 to 100. 
• Maker fees are set at 0.00% and Taker fees are set at 0.25%.
• Early settlement will take place if the outcome or event occurs before the contract expiry date. 
• The product suite will not be available to users in particular jurisdictions. 

*Last Price is used as an external price index is not required to mark the price of a contract, as long as a price is available to settle. 

Each contract has a value between zero and one USD, but is quoted in percentage terms.

Each and every listing under Prediction Markets is vetted by our team, taking into account the difficulty of defining the particular outcomes. Settlement of the contracts will be in USDT and based on our platform’s best efforts to provide a settlement price – as is the case already with all futures contracts on BitMEX.

As the new listings are speculative contracts that are marked on Last Price, users should adjust their risk tolerance accordingly when trading the products. 

For a more detailed illustration of how Prediction Markets work, read our previous blog. 

The four Prediction Markets contracts began trading on 8 August at 04:00 UTC. You can start trading P_TRUMPX24 here, P_KAMALAX24 here, P_POWELLK26 here, and P_GENSLERM26 here.

To be the first to know about our new listings, product launches, giveaways and more, we invite you to join one of our online communities and connect with other traders. For the absolute latest, you can also follow us on Twitter, or read our blog and site announcements. 

In the meantime, if you have any questions please contact Support who are available 24/7.

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