Will today’s US retail sales report be the FOMC tie-breaker?

Eyes are on the US retail sales report today, and the ‘control group’ in particular that excludes the volatile components on autos, gasoline and building materials.

The consensus is for a +0.3% reading to match the prior month.

Going into the data, the market is pricing in a 67% probability of a 50 basis point cut. Generally, the FOMC decides on the size of the cut/hike on the first day of the meeting, which is today. The meeting will start at 10 am, though I strongly suspect that Powell has already made up his mind and will need to convince the rest of the Committee.

The US data isn’t the only North American release today. Canadian CPI is due out at the same time as the BOC flags the possibility of a larger cut. The consensus on inflation is +2.1% with core numbers running only slightly higher. Just before that data (at 8:15 am ET) we also get some data on August Canadian housing starts.

For more, see the economic calendar.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.